NFL betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down Week 10 Survivor Pool strategy, previewing the safest picks of the week as well as some teams to be wary of.
NFL Week 10 Survivor Picks, Strategy
Traditionally, survivor pools require participants to simply pick the winner of one NFL game straight up each week. The challenging part of eliminator tournaments is that you can only use a team once during the season. In 2021, this means that you will need to select 18 of the 32 teams to finish the regular season, so there will be weeks during which you will not be able to have an elite roster at your disposal.
In Week 1, we said that it made sense to burn an elite team, the Los Angeles Rams, to start off the year with a victory. We successfully burned another elite team in Week 2—the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. In Week 3, we used a less notable team—the Denver Broncos in an extremely favorable matchup at home against a rookie quarterback. In Week 4, we took advantage of another team with a favorable matchup, the Buffalo Bills at home against an inexperienced signal caller. In Week 5, we took our first semi-risky play of the year, the Dallas Cowboys against their division rival. In Week 6, we successfully bet on some positive regression from and the Kansas City Chiefs. In Week 7, we finally burned the undefeated Arizona Cardinals in a favorable home matchup against the hapless Houston Texans. In Week 8, we took an admittedly risky opportunity to pick against a young quarterback making his first career start, but a 13-point blown lead in the fourth quarter ended our string of good fortune.
For the remainder of the NFL season, we will simply be outlining our top few eliminator options for those who remain in their tournaments.
Week 1: Los Angeles Rams
Week 2: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Week 3: Denver Broncos
Week 4: Buffalo Bills
Week 5: Dallas Cowboys
Week 6: Kansas City Chiefs
Week 7: Arizona Cardinals
Week 8: Cincinnati Bengals
Each week in this article, we discuss red flags to try to avoid when selecting your eliminator team of the week. As a general rule, it is best to avoid six contexts when considering options for a survivor league:
1. Intra-division games
2. Prime Time games
3. Away teams with poor defenses
4. Non-elite teams playing on a short week
5. Non-elite teams with a rest disadvantage
6. Teams who are playing an opponent off of their bye week
In Week 10, there are a few big favorites worth considering, including the Buffalo Bills (-12), Indianapolis Colts (-10.5), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-9.5), and the Dallas Cowboys (-9). Due to the uncertainty of Kyler’s status for this Sunday, we have not included the Arizona Cardinals as a potential top-option in survivor pools for this weekend. Let’s take a closer look at each contest to see which are the safest, and which are the most risky options for Week 10.
Safest Picks in Week 10
Bills (vs. Jets)
The Jacksonville Jaguars had not won a game on American soil in over 400 days prior to beating the Buffalo Bills in Week 9. Buffalo had been a juggernaut through the first two months of the regular season, defeating five of their opponents by 15 or more points, with their only losses coming to the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Tennessee Titans, by one score each. Sometimes in the NFL, the inexplicable occurs and that is what we saw happen last Sunday in Jacksonville. Nevertheless, these types of dramatic upsets are few and far between in professional football. is still one of the best quarterbacks in the league. In Week 10, he has a fantastic opportunity to erase his abysmal Week 9 showing when he takes on a New York Jets defense that has allowed 13 touchdowns against only one interception to opposing signal callers this fall. Buffalo burned a lot of people last week, but they are poised to rebound for those still alive in their survivor pools for Week 10. This contest being an intra-division matchup is not enough to cause concern, given the tremendous disparity in talent on these two rosters.
Colts (vs. Jaguars)
The Colts are far from a juggernaut, but they are also a safe option in Week 10. If bettors did not use Indianapolis last week in their Thursday Night Football matchup against the New York Jets, they should strongly consider using them this week against the Jaguars. has been sensational in recent weeks. Since the beginning of October, he has an outstanding 14-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Colts are still vulnerable in the secondary, but this weakness is unlikely to be much of a concern against an anemic Jacksonville passing attack. The Colts are a trustworthy option this Sunday.
Buccaneers (vs. Washington)
The last time we saw take the field—he threw a game-ending interception in an embarrassing loss to the New Orleans Saints. Brady has been in the league long enough for bettors to understand that he does not make those types of mistakes often. Due to Tampa Bay’s bye falling during Week 9, Brady has had two weeks to prepare for the Washington Football Team—one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. Entering play in Week 10, Washington has surrendered 20 touchdowns and forced only four interceptions against opposing signal callers this fall—good for a 107.6 passer rating. Regardless of whether Antonio Browns and suit up this weekend, expect Tampa Bay to roll in this one.
Survivor Pool Upset Watch
Each week, we will examine one team that is a heavy favorite and discuss why they could be a slightly more risky option than the other teams that people are considering in their survivor and eliminator pools. In Week 4, we identified the eight-point favorite Baltimore Ravens as being on upset alert. It took a 4th and 19 conversion on the final drive and an NFL record 66-yard field goal as time expired for them to avoid a loss to the underdog Detroit Lions. In Week 5, we said to beware of the Cincinnati Bengals, who trailed 14-0 at halftime and only barely squeaked out a 24-21 victory on Thursday Night Football. In Week 6, we once again said to prepare for a stressful day if selecting the Ravens, who trailed by 16 points in the fourth quarter against the Colts. In Week 7, we warned bettors not to fall for the bait on the Buffalo Bills, who were touchdown favorites but ended up losing outright to the Tennessee Titans. In Week 8, we told you to stay away from the Kansas City Chiefs, who trailed by 17-14 late into the fourth quarter. Stay away from these stressful situations when you can help it.
Let’s take a look at this week’s big favorite that could be in for a tougher contest than oddsmakers are suggesting.
Cowboys (vs. Falcons)
Fortunately for those still alive in their survivor pools, even the “upset watch” game this week is still a relatively safe selection. Dallas was awful in their Week 9 loss to the Denver Broncos, but they are still one of the more talented rosters in the NFL. The Cowboys have a dynamic offensive line that creates plenty of running room for one of the best running back tandems in the league. has one of the best pass-catching trios of any quarterback in football. Though the Cowboys are somewhat vulnerable on the defensive side of the ball, they are not weak enough to be overly fearful of another upset. Other than A.J. Terrell, the Atlanta Falcons do not have much, if any, talent in their defensive unit. Even if Dallas struggles defensively again in Week 10, they should be able to outscore the Falcons with ease in this one.
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