Six teams either reach or exceed a five run total on Friday night and only one of them is playing at Coors, which makes some sense in a solid pitching matchup. In fact, the Rockies are only fourth on the board at 5.15 implied runs. The Dodgers, Blue Jays and Yankees all exceed that mark, but the Houston Astros sit merely in the middle of the board at 4.35. Marco Gonzales allowed three homers to the Twins in his first start, walking two and striking out just a single batter with a 4.9 SwStr%. He has a 32.6 GB%, 15.5 HR/FB and has allowed 11.4% Barrels/BBE since last season with just an 18.2 K%. His best estimator, a 4.96 SIERA, is nearly a run above his 4.03 ERA over this span. Gonzales has also had his struggles with this Houston team that had a 117 wRC+ vs LHP last year. In 156 career PAs, current Astros have a career .368 xwOBA against him. You won’t find many Astros with high projected ownership rates today, despite the .358 wOBA RHBs have against Gonzales since last season. He’s been much better against LHBs (.250), but Statcast jumps that number over 100 points (.363 xwOBA). Seattle is a pitcher’s park, but added a humidor recently, which could boost offense. Two of the three projected LH Houston bats tonight (Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker) exceed a 130 wRC+ and .200 ISO vs LHP since last season. Among RHBs, Yuli Gurriel (151 wRC+, .205 ISO) is the only one who can say the same, though Jose Altuve (118 wRC+, .188 ISO) and Alex Bregman (123 wRC+, .118 ISO) have been proficient as well. The latter is off to a hot start with a 180 wRC+ overall this year.
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